Anticipated climate and land-cover changes reveal refuge areas for Borneo's orang-utans.

نویسندگان

  • Matthew J Struebig
  • Manuela Fischer
  • David L A Gaveau
  • Erik Meijaard
  • Serge A Wich
  • Catherine Gonner
  • Rachel Sykes
  • Andreas Wilting
  • Stephanie Kramer-Schadt
چکیده

Habitat loss and climate change pose a double jeopardy for many threatened taxa, making the identification of optimal habitat for the future a conservation priority. Using a case study of the endangered Bornean orang-utan, we identify environmental refuges by integrating bioclimatic models with projected deforestation and oil-palm agriculture suitability from the 1950s to 2080s. We coupled a maximum entropy algorithm with information on habitat needs to predict suitable habitat for the present day and 1950s. We then projected to the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s in models incorporating only land-cover change, climate change or both processes combined. For future climate, we incorporated projections from four model and emission scenario combinations. For future land cover, we developed spatial deforestation predictions from 10 years of satellite data. Refuges were delineated as suitable forested habitats identified by all models that were also unsuitable for oil palm - a major threat to tropical biodiversity. Our analyses indicate that in 2010 up to 260,000 km(2) of Borneo was suitable habitat within the core orang-utan range; an 18-24% reduction since the 1950s. Land-cover models predicted further decline of 15-30% by the 2080s. Although habitat extent under future climate conditions varied among projections, there was majority consensus, particularly in north-eastern and western regions. Across projections habitat loss due to climate change alone averaged 63% by 2080, but 74% when also considering land-cover change. Refuge areas amounted to 2000-42,000 km(2) depending on thresholds used, with 900-17,000 km(2) outside the current species range. We demonstrate that efforts to halt deforestation could mediate some orang-utan habitat loss, but further decline of the most suitable areas is to be expected given projected changes to climate. Protected refuge areas could therefore become increasingly important for ongoing translocation efforts. We present an approach to help identify such areas for highly threatened species given environmental changes expected this century.

برای دانلود متن کامل این مقاله و بیش از 32 میلیون مقاله دیگر ابتدا ثبت نام کنید

ثبت نام

اگر عضو سایت هستید لطفا وارد حساب کاربری خود شوید

منابع مشابه

Understanding the Impacts of Land-Use Policies on a Threatened Species: Is There a Future for the Bornean Orang-utan?

The geographic distribution of Bornean orang-utans and its overlap with existing land-use categories (protected areas, logging and plantation concessions) is a necessary foundation to prioritize conservation planning. Based on an extensive orang-utan survey dataset and a number of environmental variables, we modelled an orang-utan distribution map. The modelled orang-utan distribution map cover...

متن کامل

Reconstructing the demographic history of orang-utans using Approximate Bayesian Computation.

Investigating how different evolutionary forces have shaped patterns of DNA variation within and among species requires detailed knowledge of their demographic history. Orang-utans, whose distribution is currently restricted to the South-East Asian islands of Borneo (Pongo pygmaeus) and Sumatra (Pongo abelii), have likely experienced a complex demographic history, influenced by recurrent change...

متن کامل

Impact of urban development and land use changes on the climate of the city of Shiraz and Fasa

Expansion of urban areas has impacted on climate in local and global scale. As a result, residents’ life would be influenced accordingly. In this study, the effects of changes in land cover and land use change on climate of Shiraz and Fasa were studied in a long-term period. To ensure the normal data, Kolmogrov-Smirnoff test was employed. The minimum and maximum temperature parameters and relat...

متن کامل

Recent Surveys in the Forests of Ulu Segama Malua, Sabah, Malaysia, Show That Orang-utans (P. p. morio) Can Be Maintained in Slightly Logged Forests

BACKGROUND Today the majority of wild great ape populations are found outside of the network of protected areas in both Africa and Asia, therefore determining if these populations are able to survive in forests that are exploited for timber or other extractive uses and how this is managed, is paramount for their conservation. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS In 2007, the "Kinabatangan Orang-uta...

متن کامل

The roles of traditional knowledge systems in orang-utan Pongo spp. and forest conservation: a case study of Danau Sentarum, West Kalimantan, Indonesia

The orang-utan Pongo spp. is protected by national and international legislation, yet populations continue to decline. Many reports implicate local people in the poaching and illegal trade in orang-utans, yet community participation has been promoted as an alternative conservation strategy. To explore how community-based orang-utan conservation could be developed, we conducted a study to unders...

متن کامل

ذخیره در منابع من


  با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید

برای دانلود متن کامل این مقاله و بیش از 32 میلیون مقاله دیگر ابتدا ثبت نام کنید

ثبت نام

اگر عضو سایت هستید لطفا وارد حساب کاربری خود شوید

عنوان ژورنال:
  • Global change biology

دوره 21 8  شماره 

صفحات  -

تاریخ انتشار 2015